Download Ebook What Are The Odds?: Chance In Everyday Life, by Mike Orkin
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What Are The Odds?: Chance In Everyday Life, by Mike Orkin
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Michael Orkin, a professor of statistics and an expert on gambling games, lays bare the facts about chance, odds and decision making in both gambling and non-gambling applications. He also dispels some common myths about coincidences, randomness, cause and effect.
- Sales Rank: #1521845 in Books
- Brand: Brand: W. H. Freeman
- Published on: 2000-01-10
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.50" h x .44" w x 5.90" l, .0 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 160 pages
- Used Book in Good Condition
Review
"I've never met anyone better at helping us to understand how to deal with chance and use it to our advantage, whether in negotiation or at the sports book."--Larry Kramer, CEO & President, CBS MarketWatch.com
About the Author
Mike Orkin, Ph.D., is a professor of statistics at California State University, Hayward. An authority on gambling and game theory, Orkin has consulted for government agencies and the private sector, testified as an expert witness in various court cases, and developed software for Las Vegas odds makers. He is the author of several books, including Can You Win?. He lives in Berkeley, California.
Most helpful customer reviews
6 of 7 people found the following review helpful.
Good intro to basic probability
By world class wreckin cru
Though subtitled, "Chance in Everyday Life," Orkin primarily uses gambling and war to discuss probability. The book starts off with a few chapters of basic probability, and Orkin uses several short passages to illustrate some of the common misconceptions many of us share about the role of chance.
The meat of the book, however, is concerned with gambling and war. Orkin gives entertaining explanations for the various odds associated with roulette, craps, slots, and blackjack. His reasoning is easy to understand and will hopefully disabuse gamblers of the notion of lucky streaks. Orkin then goes on to discuss spend a couple of chapters on zero-sum game theory and the prisoner's dilemma. He effectively uses examples involving two warring generals who must decide to attack, defend, cooperate, etc. when presented with various options and the payouts associated with them.
This book would have gotten 4 stars had it not been for the unnecessary last chapter where the author discusses zero-sum game theory with respect to the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. Unfortunately, the chapter comes off less like a lesson in game theory, than an opportunity for Orkin to present his political views. Politics just doesn't belong this book.
This is a decent book and a short read. If anything, pick it up for the short discussions on gambling.
11 of 14 people found the following review helpful.
Odd book, variable content
By Gary Sprandel
This is a quirky book, but with lots of good information. The tone is often humorous, but ends with a serious topic. About half the book is spent looking at the house edge on roulette, craps, and slot machines. He presented a "winning strategy (almost)" for blackjack, however he does not include the calculation for the house edge there.
I thought the section on chance and chaos were excellent and I'd recommend to readers setting up the logistic difference equation of animal populations on a spreadsheet, to really demonstrate the effect of initial conditions. Contrary however to this strong section on biology, was a weak paragraph on evolution.
The later discussion on game theory was well done, looking at the Minimax criteria and the pay-off models. This chapter might have been enhanced by other strategies of decision, such as "avoiding regret". The final application of game theory to the Yugoslavian conflict was daring, and showed a different perspective about complex conflicts. Perhaps participants in Survivor, or other reality shows would benefit from this book.
24 of 26 people found the following review helpful.
popular probability book reviews
By Michael R. Chernick
Orkin writes clearly for the novice and uses a minimal amount of mathematics. He provides clear explanations of games of chance including roulette and blackjack. The coverage on blackjack is particularly detailed and some of the anecdotes are very amusing. It is a little disappointing however since it promises examples from everyday life in the title but concentrates mainly on gambling and coincidence and does not offer much in the way of real problems. Some of the examples are overly simplistic. Still the discussion of gambling is interesting and there are many good references.
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